Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Google Flu Trends - take with salt

Google has a service called Flu Trends which attempts to predict influenza outbreaks based on people's search behavior. The theory is that during outbreaks, people do more searches for particular terms or items.

As any investor can tell you, past performance is no predictor of future returns. Any algorithm Google can come up with can correlate very nicely with past data from the CDC, but may not be as useful for forward predictions. Still, it's a nice idea, and one more bit of information to add to the mix.

Just don't bet your house on it.

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